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OBJECTIVE: Clinical trials involve the collection of a wealth of data, comprising multiple diverse measurements performed at baseline and follow-up visits over the course of a trial. The most common primary analysis is restricted to a single, potentially composite endpoint at one time point. While such an analytical focus promotes simple and replicable conclusions, it does not necessarily fully capture the multi-faceted effects of a drug in a complex disease setting. Therefore, to complement existing approaches, we set out here to design a longitudinal multivariate analytical framework that accepts as input an entire clinical trial database, comprising all measurements, patients, and time points across multiple trials. METHODS: Our framework composes probabilistic principal component analysis with a longitudinal linear mixed effects model, thereby enabling clinical interpretation of multivariate results, while handling data missing at random, and incorporating covariates and covariance structure in a computationally efficient and principled way. RESULTS: We illustrate our approach by applying it to four phase III clinical trials of secukinumab in Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). We identify three clinically plausible latent factors that collectively explain 74.5% of empirical variation in the longitudinal patient database. We estimate longitudinal trajectories of these factors, thereby enabling joint characterisation of disease progression and drug effect. We perform benchmarking experiments demonstrating our method's competitive performance at estimating average treatment effects compared to existing statistical and machine learning methods, and showing that our modular approach leads to relatively computationally efficient model fitting. CONCLUSION: Our multivariate longitudinal framework has the potential to illuminate the properties of existing composite endpoint methods, and to enable the development of novel clinical endpoints that provide enhanced and complementary perspectives on treatment response.
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Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality with both monogenic and polygenic components. We here report results from the largest HCM genome-wide association study (GWAS) and multi-trait analysis (MTAG) including 5,900 HCM cases, 68,359 controls, and 36,083 UK Biobank (UKB) participants with cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging. We identified a total of 70 loci (50 novel) associated with HCM, and 62 loci (32 novel) associated with relevant left ventricular (LV) structural or functional traits. Amongst the common variant HCM loci, we identify a novel HCM disease gene, SVIL, which encodes the actin-binding protein supervillin, showing that rare truncating SVIL variants cause HCM. Mendelian randomization analyses support a causal role of increased LV contractility in both obstructive and non-obstructive forms of HCM, suggesting common disease mechanisms and anticipating shared response to therapy. Taken together, the findings significantly increase our understanding of the genetic basis and molecular mechanisms of HCM, with potential implications for disease management.
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BACKGROUND: Novartis and the University of Oxford's Big Data Institute (BDI) have established a research alliance with the aim to improve health care and drug development by making it more efficient and targeted. Using a combination of the latest statistical machine learning technology with an innovative IT platform developed to manage large volumes of anonymised data from numerous data sources and types we plan to identify novel patterns with clinical relevance which cannot be detected by humans alone to identify phenotypes and early predictors of patient disease activity and progression. METHOD: The collaboration focuses on highly complex autoimmune diseases and develops a computational framework to assemble a research-ready dataset across numerous modalities. For the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated phase II to phase IV clinical and imaging trial data from ≈35,000 patients across all clinical phenotypes and collected in more than 2200 centres worldwide. For the "IL-17" project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated clinical and imaging data from over 30 phase II and III Cosentyx clinical trials including more than 15,000 patients, suffering from four autoimmune disorders (Psoriasis, Axial Spondyloarthritis, Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)). RESULTS: A fundamental component of successful data analysis and the collaborative development of novel machine learning methods on these rich data sets has been the construction of a research informatics framework that can capture the data at regular intervals where images could be anonymised and integrated with the de-identified clinical data, quality controlled and compiled into a research-ready relational database which would then be available to multi-disciplinary analysts. The collaborative development from a group of software developers, data wranglers, statisticians, clinicians, and domain scientists across both organisations has been key. This framework is innovative, as it facilitates collaborative data management and makes a complicated clinical trial data set from a pharmaceutical company available to academic researchers who become associated with the project. CONCLUSIONS: An informatics framework has been developed to capture clinical trial data into a pipeline of anonymisation, quality control, data exploration, and subsequent integration into a database. Establishing this framework has been integral to the development of analytical tools.
